“Political vision? In this economy?”
Some homework for the Dáil summer recess
Two important things happened yesterday.
Firstly, the Dáil went into summer recess.
Secondly, an opinion poll came out. The most surprising of its results was that only 14% of people feel that the Government is making progress in tackling the issues facing the country.
Our politicians should use the former to think about the latter. TDs will have about two months to take a break, work on constituency issues, and strategise for the upcoming Dáil term. It will also give them some time to step back and think more about a greater vision for what they want for their country. I think it’s essential. I’ll explain why, but first, why are governments so reluctant to present a big, bold vision to the electorate?
I see two main reasons. Firstly, because I think there’s a lack of belief in their ability to actually deliver on a big vision, which I’ve touched on before. Secondly, I think there is a strong aversion in Irish politics to acknowledging trade-offs. I want to focus on this point. When there’s no vision, there’s no need to disappoint anyone by not focusing on their preferred option. Everything can be a priority. But as we all know from our own lives, when everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. Choosing a vision charts a course to some future, but this necessarily means that other options are rejected. If we are a society that wants cheaper housing, then we are a society that does not allow suburban sprawl. If we are a society that wants to be carbon-neutral, then we are a society that gets disruptive public transport projects done. If we are a society that values private property rights highly, then we are a society that struggles to build public infrastructure.
Below is the current vision of the Government, according to its Programme for Government - how does it make you feel?
“This is a programme which will… protect those things upon which our country values and relies, while also supporting significant progress in addressing critical social, economic, political, demographic and environmental challenges”
I’m not so much inspired as I am trying to understand what is actually being said. This could be the vision of any government of any country at any point in history. It promises everything without acknowledging that a government can’t do everything. It seems that, according to yesterday’s poll, the Irish public are not inspired either.
The Irish voting system and ‘trade-off denial’
This ‘trade-off denial’ is present in many democracies, but it is heightened in Ireland by our voting system. It is a system that incentivises politicians to be very sensitive to even small shifts in public opinion in their constituency. Briefly, Ireland allows for voters to rank all candidates in order of preference. When their preferred candidate is eliminated, their vote transfers to their second favourite and so on. But second and third votes don’t count for half or a third, they become a full vote again. So politicians try to get #1 votes - but if they can’t get them, they still want to get voters’ #2 or #3, or as high as possible on the ballot. They do this by persuading as many people as possible that their concerns are their priority (importantly, in Irish elections, the margin often comes down to dozens or hundreds of votes). To do this, it is best to pretend that everything is possible all at once. In other words, that trade-offs don’t exist.
Yesterday’s polling suggests that voters are starting to see through this. To them, the focus on everything has yielded little progress on anything. Popular anger about Ireland’s inability to get big things done spills out in our media and social media every day. This disenchantment with the state’s ability to deliver isn’t just bad for the current government, but dangerous for the country in general. It can lead to apathy and extremism, and give an impetus to growing fringe groups who do have clear visions, such as far-right groups.
The antidote to this is politicians who can act decisively and solve problems - to do this, they must present a strong political vision of where we want to go as a country and explain to people how we get there, including all the trade-offs (good and bad).
And this is a huge opportunity, not a burden. Recent history should make us optimistic about what we can achieve when we’re clear on what this vision is. We have seen that, in emergency situations, we can pull together and make sacrifices for the public good. Our COVID response was a remarkable mobilisation of civil and public servants, community groups and the wider Irish public, backed by strong political will. What was the vision here? We will do everything to prevent COVID from spreading in Ireland. What were the trade-offs? You will face unprecedented restrictions on your freedom, but fewer people will fall ill and die because of that.
In general, we were happy to accept this. We knew the trade-offs and decided that the good outweighed the bad. Our fear was eased by clarity and decisive action.
Yet it is easy to coalesce around a vision in times of emergency. In peacetime, it is harder - we don’t have an external enemy to fear like a virus. So now, instead of combatting fear, we must inspire hope - with a vision that people can believe in, clearly and honestly communicated, warts and all.
Reasons for hope
At a time when we are facing huge challenges in Ireland, a recent example can point the way forward. When Sean Sweeney, head of the Metrolink project, gave a brutally honest view of the issues that the project would cause, he was met with admiration from politicians within and outside Government. He outlined how a metro would make the city a better place to live and predicted that once the project was complete, no one would complain that it shouldn’t have been done. Importantly, he didn’t stop there.
He talked about the negatives as well. He acknowledged that some people will be "grievously impacted”, that some businesses will lose footfall, that there will likely be budget and timeline overruns. He called out Ireland’s planning system as one that encouraged individuals to be selfish and hold society back. However, he also said that property prices along the line will increase significantly and that ultimately, “Dublin will be euphoric” and the country will be better off.
Put simply, he presented a vision and was honest about the trade-offs to achieve it.
And that honesty earned him respect. He said that he is willing to take the blame if things go wrong. However, he also said that he needs backing from the current and future Transport Ministers, and if he does not get it, he will walk away. The success of Metrolink will therefore rely on whether politicians can follow his lead in acknowledging these trade-offs. They must keep faith in the vision throughout, even when loud voices are calling for it to be changed or stopped.
We still have a long way to go. Senior politicians have been far less supportive when economy-wide trade-offs are raised. One example came last month, when Oonagh Buckley, the top civil servant in the energy department, raised an important trade-off. In a discussion about Ireland’s use of electricity for data centres, she asked, “we’re having to even think about prioritising what is the social need of the demand – is it housing or is it AI? We’re going to have to think much more about managing demand”. This was met with sharp rebukes from her own Minister, from the Infrastructure Minister and the Taoiseach.
The way forward
People have the right to understand what their elected representatives are prioritising. And they have a right to have a say on their representatives’ vision. Because political vision is not just a nice addition, but a crucial aspect of building a nation. Without it, people will be drawn to the extremes, where negative visions of our country are widespread. And they will continue to lose faith in our state. We need Sean Sweeney and Oonagh Buckley’s vision and honesty on a wider scale across our politics. This is especially important as the Government will soon decide its long-term infrastructure and housing priorities, amid stormy economic conditions.
The key question for TDs over the recess is: what do you want the country to look like, and what issues have to be de-prioritised to achieve that? You can’t do everything. Tell us what you want and how we get there. Accept reality so that we can dream.